Congo Calls an Ebola Peak as North Kivu Surges

The Democratic Republic of the Congo has recorded 7,200 confirmed cases and 3,475 deaths from Bundibugyo Ebola as of 12 September, a death rate of 48.3%. Health minister Samuel Roger Kamba said on 15 September that the outbreak, Congo’s 17th since 1976, is under control.

Africa CDC had said on 10 September that new cases were falling in Ituri, the original centre, and rising sharply in North Kivu, where fighting around Goma has slowed the response and the death rate is much higher.

Kinshasa Calls a Peak as North Kivu Cases Double

Kamba told the country that daily confirmations had dropped to about 80 from about 120 at the high point, and that 10 of 62 affected health zones had gone more than 22 days with no new case. Six of those zones, he said, had cleared 42 days, the usual mark for interrupted spread, and four more had cleared 21 days, leaving 52 zones still on the list.

We are fighting a very dangerous virus that is killing many of our people. Today, we can say that the outbreak is under control.

Samuel Roger Kamba, health minister of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 15 September 2026

Yap Boum of Africa CDC gave a harder reading on 10 September for the province next door. New cases in North Kivu had more than doubled to 381 in the latest three-week window, from 165 in the window before, he said, and the virus had reached two more health zones there.

THE DATES THAT MOVED THE MAP

1. 15 May 2026: Congo declares a Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in Ituri, later counted as the country’s 17th Ebola outbreak.
2. 29 May 2026: South Kivu reports its last confirmed case; WHO later says the province stays quiet.
3. 2 July 2026: The PARTNERS treatment trial begins enrolling confirmed patients at facilities in Ituri.
4. 20 August 2026: The global vaccine stockpile releases 70,000 doses of Ervebo, a shot licensed for Zaire Ebola.
5. 6 September 2026: WHO counts 2,007 people vaccinated across six health zones in Tshopo, Bas-Uélé and Ituri.
6. 10 September 2026: Africa CDC says Ituri is easing while North Kivu cases more than double.
7. 15 September 2026: Kamba says the outbreak is under control; UN officials say it will still take months.

Sud-Ubangi, on the borders with Congo-Brazzaville and the Central African Republic, was added after WHO’s 7 September count, bringing the map to seven provinces. Uganda, which recorded 20 confirmed cases and two deaths, had already closed its imported cluster. The national decline Kamba described is real in the daily total. It is also an average that hides where the virus is still finding people.

A 65.4 Percent Death Rate in North Kivu

WHO’s snapshot as of 7 September, five days before the 7,200 tally, still had Ituri as the centre, with 5,406 confirmed cases, including 1,114 in the prior 21 days. North Kivu already had 1,066 confirmed cases, 453 of them in those same 21 days, and a North Kivu case fatality ratio of 65.4%. WHO said that was among the highest death rates in this outbreak and that investigations were still open.

WHO COUNTS AS OF 7 SEPTEMBER

Kayna, in North Kivu, was the newest health zone on that WHO list. The province is also a war zone. Rwanda-backed M23 rebels hold Goma, the provincial capital, and WHO says insecurity, displacement, and weak water and sanitation in camps and mining towns still block case finding and safe burials. About one million displaced people live in Ituri alone, and more than 26 million people in Congo face acute food insecurity.

Earlier Bundibugyo outbreaks killed about 30% of patients in Uganda in 2007 and about 50% in Congo in 2012. This one is already at 48.3% nationwide. In North Kivu it is running hotter than both of those histories, which is the gap a national “peak” does not close.

The Only Licensed Shot Is Built for Zaire Ebola

Bundibugyo virus has no approved vaccine and no approved treatment. The shot Congo can actually put in arms is Ervebo, licensed for Zaire Ebola, the species behind 15 of the country’s 17 outbreaks. On 20 August, the International Coordinating Group on Vaccine Provision told Kinshasa it had approved an immediate initial release of 70,000 doses.

It is not known whether Ervebo may be protective against the Bundibugyo virus in humans. Early laboratory and animal data suggest it may provide some protection.

World Health Organization and Africa CDC, joint statement, 20 August 2026

WHO’s Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization reviewed extra evidence on 19 August and still found it too thin for ordinary campaign use. The agency’s line is that Ervebo should be given against Bundibugyo only inside a research protocol. Of the 70,000 doses, 50,000 are meant for health and front-line workers and 20,000 for a Phase 3 trial. WHO has said that trial could start in October or November and that it may take months to learn whether the shot protects people against this species.

ERVEBO DOSES ON HAND

• Stockpile release: 70,000 Ervebo doses were allocated from the emergency Ebola stockpile in August.
• Front-line share: 50,000 doses are earmarked for health and other front-line workers.
• Trial share: 20,000 doses are reserved for a Phase 3 study of protection against Bundibugyo virus.
• Arms so far: 2,007 people had been vaccinated as of 6 September in Tshopo, Bas-Uélé and Ituri.

A separate treatment study, PARTNERS, began enrolling confirmed patients on 2 July at five care sites in Ituri and had taken in more than 300 people by early September. That trial is looking at drugs, including remdesivir and MBP134, not at a Bundibugyo-specific vaccine. A purpose-built Bundibugyo candidate from Oxford reached Phase I in July, which is still early work while Congo is already into the thousands of cases.

Unpaid Teams Walked Off in the Epicenter

The people expected to deliver that response have been working without steady pay. In July, staff at the Elikya Ebola treatment centre in Bunia and at Rwampara General Hospital stopped work over unpaid wages and bonuses, including epidemiologists, case investigators, drivers and gravediggers. Communications minister Patrick Muyaya said the delayed payments were being processed after protests reached several treatment sites.

Africa CDC’s 7 August dashboard counted 158 infected health workers in Congo and 46 deaths among them. CDC has also flagged violence against health staff and shortages of protective gear as reasons workers keep getting infected while they treat patients. Safe-burial teams in the east have reported assaults by residents who do not want bodies handled under Ebola rules, which is how funerals turn into new chains.

WHAT IS BLOCKING THE RESPONSE

• War around Goma: M23 control of the North Kivu capital and fighting nearby cut access for surveillance and care.
• Pay strikes: Treatment-centre staff in Bunia and Rwampara walked out in July over unpaid wages and bonuses.
• Community deaths: Most confirmed deaths are still happening outside treatment units, which means families are exposed before a team arrives.
• Thin contact lists: In August, only 15% to 20% of new confirmed cases had been named as contacts, against a target above 90%.
• Crowded camps: Overcrowding and weak water and sanitation in displacement sites and mining towns give the virus more chances to move.

On 14 August WHO again rated the risk inside Congo as very high, and high for countries that share its land borders. It advised against travel or trade bans. The harder limit is local: a team that is unpaid, unwelcome, or unable to reach a village cannot finish a contact list, and the list is how an Ebola peak is supposed to prove itself.

How Fast This Outbreak Outran the Last One

This is already the largest Ebola outbreak Congo has recorded, of any species, and the second-largest anywhere after West Africa in 2014 to 2016, which killed more than 11,000 people. The U.S. CDC says the 2026 outbreak reached 1,000 confirmed cases within 40 days of response activation. The 2018 eastern Congo outbreak, in the same Ituri-North Kivu belt, took about 235 days to pass 1,000 cases, and that epidemic had a vaccine matched to the virus in use.

THREE OUTBREAKS ON THE SAME CLOCK

WHO closed the 2018 to 2020 eastern outbreak on 25 June 2020 after 23 months, with 3,470 cases and 2,287 deaths. Responders registered more than 250,000 contacts and vaccinated more than 303,000 people with rVSV-ZEBOV-GP, the shot now sold as Ervebo. As of 6 September this year, the comparable figure for Bundibugyo was 2,007 people, and SAGE still will not treat that shot as a campaign tool for this virus.

CDC’s comparison chart, using data through 13 September, put Congo at 7,200 confirmed cases around day 122 of this outbreak, against 1,093 at the same point in 2014 in West Africa and 438 in the 2018 eastern epidemic. Speed is why a fall from 120 cases a day to 80 can still leave a caseload that has already passed Congo’s previous worst outbreak.

Kaseya’s Test for a Real Peak

Jean Kaseya, director general of Africa CDC, visited Bunia in August and refused to call a peak. He said 60% to 70% of deaths were still happening in the community, and that the contact list kept growing. “Epidemiologists say we’ve reached the peak when all cases come from the list of contacts,” he said.

CDC field notes as of 21 August found that only 15% to 20% of new confirmed cases had been identified earlier as contacts, against a target above 90%, and that 59% of confirmed deaths outside treatment units were still occurring in the community. Bunia lawmaker Iracan Gratien warned against “triumphalism” after Kamba’s 15 September remarks and said a control claim needs public indicators, including a sustained drop in deaths, fewer active zones, and new cases that come from known contacts.

WHERE EXPERTS DISAGREE

• Kamba: The outbreak is under control, with about 80 new cases a day against about 120 at the high point and 10 of 62 health zones quiet for more than 22 days.
• Kaseya: A peak is not real while most deaths are in the community and new cases keep arriving from outside the contact list.
• UN officials: Some response work is starting to show results, but the epidemic will take months to bring under control.

CDC field notes through 21 August still had previously identified contacts at 15% to 20% of new confirmed cases, far below the 90% target Kaseya uses as the peak test. UN officials, speaking on 15 September, said the epidemic would take months to bring under control.

Disclaimer: This article is news reporting and analysis of an ongoing Ebola outbreak. It is for information only and is not medical advice, a diagnosis, or a guide to vaccination, travel, or treatment. Readers who may have been exposed, who have symptoms, or who are deciding on care should contact a qualified physician or the public health authority in their country before acting. Case counts, death rates, vaccine guidance, and outbreak status are taken from the health agencies named above as of the dates given and can change as new laboratory results and field reports arrive.