Digger Turns Tom Cruise’s Oscar Push Into a Box Office Wager

First reactions to Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s Digger split after New York, Los Angeles, and London screenings, even as Warner Bros. still needs the Tom Cruise satire to recoup like a major. The picture opens wide in North America on October 2, with IMAX dates and a handful of VistaVision prints, after a royal premiere in Leicester Square on September 22.

Cruise, 64, plays Digger Rockwell, an oil baron who has to sell himself as humanity’s savior after his own drilling sets off a climate disaster. The studio has a $125 million production budget on the books. An insider around the campaign has said worldwide gross has to reach $300 million and up, once marketing and awards spend are in, before the movie breaks even.

A $125 Million Satire Has to Play Like a Cruise Event

That is a lot of money for a black comedy with no franchise title on the poster. Legendary Pictures made it. Cruise produced it with Iñárritu and Mary Parent. It is Iñárritu’s first English-language feature since The Revenant, and Cruise’s first Warner Bros. starring vehicle since Edge of Tomorrow in 2014, after he signed a theatrical deal with the studio in January 2024.

Pre-release tracking published September 11 puts the domestic opening between $20 million and $30 million. On the same weekend, Amazon MGM’s Verity is ranged at $30 million to $40 million. The Cruise number sits next to two recent autumn prestige opens the forecast itself used as comps: Warner Bros.’ One Battle After Another at $22 million last year, and Killers of the Flower Moon at $23.2 million in 2023.

THE OPENING MATH

An opening in that band is not a death sentence if the film holds. One Battle After Another proved a slow start can still turn into a long run when reviews and awards heat arrive together. The problem for Digger is that several of the first people out of the room are already warning the opposite: a brutal CinemaScore, a movie that “will not score with mainstream audiences,” and a test of whether Cruise’s name still moves tickets when the movie stops resembling his last decade of work.

First Viewers Already Disagree on the Joke

The divide is not a shrug. It is an argument about whether Iñárritu can land a joke at studio scale, and whether Cruise’s turn is a late-career peak or a stunt in search of a film. Journalist Clayton Davis wrote that Digger “is not what people are expecting,” and that “how audiences react may be the ultimate test of Tom Cruise’s star power.” Anne Thompson called it “a brave and gorgeous art film that will not score with mainstream audiences but will play best for the Academy, especially crafts and actors.”

David Ehrlich went the other way: “watching Alejandro González Iñárritu try to construct a joke is like watching Frank Gehry try to draw a straight line.” Ryan Lattanzio tagged it “a self-indulgent miscalculation from end to end.” Joey Magidson called it “a mess” with “a commitment to their big choices” and not a lot that works. Edward Douglas said he could tell what they were going for and still could not call the movie very good, adding that he expects a horrendous CinemaScore.

WHERE THE ROOM SPLIT

• The raves: Jim Hemphill called it Cruise’s best work since Magnolia and one of the most visually inventive studio movies ever made, a swing that makes Bardo look tame.
• The respectful middle: Scott Menzel praised the pairing as a one-of-a-kind experience even while saying the film will not work for everyone; Tomris Laffly read it as Iñárritu’s own Dr. Strangelove that then turns into something the Birdman director knows how to handle.
• The warning: Kristen Lopez found a mixed bag that “doesn’t trust the audience enough not to hold its hand,” and said satire is hard when the real world is already this absurd.
• The shape-shift: Several viewers said the movie changes register, from oversized satire into a bleaker, more self-aware commentary, and that the turn will dominate the reviews.

Riz Ahmed, as the scientist Ganesh, is the supporting name that keeps coming up as a highlight even in the pans. John Goodman, as the dictatorial U.S. president, drew strong notices in the same breath as Cruise. Sophie Wilde, in a smaller part, was flagged by Davis as a possible scene-stealer. The crafts case is already being built in public: Emmanuel Lubezki’s images, Dennis Gassner’s end-times rooms, Kazu Hiro’s prosthetics.

The louder problem is simpler than taste. A movie that spends this much, and asks this much of a Friday crowd, cannot afford to be only an art object. If the jokes sit there, and the lecture sits on top of the jokes, the opening range in that table becomes a ceiling instead of a floor.

Four Nominations, One Honorary Oscar, and Digger Rockwell

Cruise has four competitive Oscar nominations and no competitive win. He was up for actor for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire, supporting actor for Magnolia, and picture as a producer on Top Gun: Maverick. The Academy gave him an Honorary Award at the 2025 Governors Awards on November 16, citing “unwavering commitment to the filmmaking community, his vital support of the theatrical experience, and his unmatched body of work.”

Iñárritu presented that statue. He told the room Cruise “doesn’t just make movies, he is movies,” and that the honorary prize “will not be the last.” They had already been shooting this film in London. The GQ sit-down that landed September 15 was the campaign’s first long interview, a mostly work-obsessed conversation that still tried to recast Cruise as a dramatic actor again. He called Rockwell “the most challenging character ever,” “not even close,” and “the culmination of all my skills.”

THE OSCAR CLOCK ON CRUISE

1. 1989: Nominated for actor, Born on the Fourth of July.
2. 1996: Nominated for actor, Jerry Maguire.
3. 1999: Nominated for supporting actor, Magnolia.
4. 2022: Nominated for picture as producer, Top Gun: Maverick.
5. November 16, 2025: Honorary Oscar, presented by Iñárritu.
6. October 2, 2026: Digger opens as the competitive bid that honorary prize was supposed to tee up.

Thompson already isolated the amphitheater scene as the clip that might “put him across.” Hemphill reached back to Magnolia for the last time Cruise this unbuttoned worked on the Academy. That is the awards path. It runs straight into the commercial path. A horrendous CinemaScore does not officially bind Oscar voters, but it does tell a studio how loud it can shout after opening weekend.

What Digger Puts on Screen

The official logline is blunt. The most powerful man in the world races to prove he is humanity’s savior before the disaster he unleashed destroys everything. In the plot as first viewers describe it, Rockwell’s Greenland drilling has kicked out methane and knocked an ice shelf loose, a mass now sliding toward Europe with a tsunami in its wake. He does not notice the world ending in the usual way. He tries to narrate it.

The British Board of Film Classification posted a 129-minute cinema classification on September 11, listing the 2D version at 128 minutes 55 seconds, and passed it 15 for very strong language. The MPA rated it R in the United States for pervasive language. The board’s content notes also flag a sustained disaster sequence of cities under waves, frequent talk of cancer and terminal illness, and a brief suicide. Goodman’s president is sick. Michael Stuhlbarg plays the vice president. Sandra Hüller is Emma Rockwell, Digger’s half-sister and business partner. Jesse Plemons is a late-arriving figure several viewers refused to describe.

Iñárritu wrote the screenplay with Alexander Dinelaris and Nicolás Giacobone, his Birdman partners, and with Sabina Berman. Jez Butterworth shares the story credit. Cosmo Sheldrake, in his first feature score, is on music. The cast also includes Emma D’Arcy, Robert John Burke, Burn Gorman, and Mercedes Hernández.

Cruise showed up at the London premiere calling the man “totally outrageous.” “He’s the kind of character that says things that some people think, some people can’t imagine thinking,” he said. “I’ve never read a character like it. I’ve never read a film like this.” That is the sales line. It is also the risk. The red carpet still treats him as the last movie star. The movie asks him to be a padded, combovered catastrophe in Kazu Hiro’s makeup, a look he says he cut from six hours in the chair to one.

Iñárritu Waited a Decade for This Camera and This Face

Iñárritu has been carrying Rockwell since just after The Revenant. He has said he knew how the man spoke, how he survived, and how he “seduced reality into agreeing with him” long before he had a script. Cruise, who saw Amores Perros early and spent years trying to get people on the phone about it, was in the conversation by 2019, while he was shooting Top Gun: Maverick. The film was announced with Cruise attached in February 2024.

I had an idea, not a script, not a film, just a relentless recurring obsession that has endured through all these wild years. I knew who this character was. I knew how he spoke, how he survived, how he seduced reality into agreeing with him. It took me ten years to do this film, because I wasn’t looking for a story. I was looking for the right way of saying it.

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, director, Warner Bros. trailer event

That ten years to do this film is now a $125 million object shot entirely in VistaVision on 35 mm at Pinewood, with lenses cut for this production. Cruise said the team tested 65 mm against VistaVision and then built glass to match the wider frame. Iñárritu’s line for the format was “cinema deserves scale.” Principal photography started November 7, 2024, under the working title Judy, paused two days in March 2025 when Goodman needed hip surgery, and wrapped May 3, 2025.

They skipped the usual autumn festival runway. No Venice, no Telluride, no Toronto. The title and a 50-second teaser arrived in December 2025. Footage played CinemaCon on April 14, 2026. The first full trailer followed on July 13. That is a studio picture’s calendar, not an art-house sneak. It is also why the first reactions landed like a verdict on a bet that had already been placed.

Royals, IMAX, and a Soft October Floor

The world premiere on September 22 was this year’s Royal Film Performance at the Odeon Luxe in Leicester Square. Prince William and Catherine, Princess of Wales, sat down front. Cruise thanked them from the stage for what they do for the arts. Iñárritu, introducing his star, said the surprise was not the acting but the mood Cruise brought to set. “His enthusiasm is contagious, it’s actually uncomfortable,” the director said, and Cruise laughed.

International dates begin September 30, including France and Belgium, with Germany, New Zealand, and Argentina on October 1. North America, the United Kingdom, IMAX, Dolby Cinema, and those VistaVision engagements follow on October 2. The carpet in London still looked like a Cruise event. Replies under the premiere videos still reached for Ethan Hunt. That is the brand the studio is renting. It is not the man in the prosthetics.

THE BET AS IT STANDS

• The outlay: $125 million to produce, plus a campaign that an insider says pushes the recoup line above $300 million worldwide.
• The tracking: $20 million to $30 million domestic, behind Verity on the same weekend.
• The runtime and rating: 129 minutes, R in the United States, 15 in Britain.
• The open: October 2 in North America, with IMAX and limited VistaVision, after September 30 abroad.

Cruise told GQ he does not fear the cliff. Digger is the cliff without a parachute. The first viewers have now told Warner Bros. what kind of fall it might be. Paying crowds get the next line, starting October 2.