South Africa, the 15th biggest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, has pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. However, the country faces a dilemma as it relies heavily on coal for its electricity needs. How can South Africa balance its energy security and its climate commitments?

Coal power plants will stay online longer than planned

One of the main challenges for South Africa is to phase out its coal-fired power plants, which account for about half of its emissions. The country had committed under the Paris Climate Agreement to decommission eight coal power plants, six by 2030 and the remaining by 2034. This would help South Africa reduce its emissions to between 350 and 420 million metric tons annually by 2030, up from 442 million metric tons in 2020.

However, South Africa has been facing a power supply crisis, with frequent blackouts and load shedding. The state-owned power utility Eskom, which operates most of the coal plants, has been struggling with aging infrastructure, operational inefficiencies, and financial woes. To avoid further disruptions, the government has decided to delay the closure of the coal plants and extend their lifespan.

This decision has raised concerns that South Africa will miss its 2030 emissions target as well as jeopardize its long-term goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. According to some government officials, the country’s emissions models suggest that it will not be able to meet its nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement if the coal plants continue to operate well into the 2030s.

green energy plan to boost renewable sources and efficiency

To address the energy and climate challenges, South Africa has launched a green energy plan, which is partly funded by Western and multilateral donors. The plan aims to increase the share of renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, in the country’s electricity mix, as well as improve energy efficiency and conservation.

The plan also involves a just transition for the workers and communities affected by the coal phase-out, as well as the development of new industries and skills in the green economy. The plan is expected to create more than 300,000 jobs and attract more than $30 billion in investments by 2030.

The head of the green energy plan, Joanne Yawitch, said that South Africa has not backtracked from its climate commitments and that it is still on track to achieve its NDC if the coal switch is not delayed again. She said that the country has been reducing its emissions over the last few years, mainly due to power shortages at Eskom. She also said that the country is in discussions with its donors and partners to revise its emissions target for 2035, taking into account the latest developments.

Global pressure and opportunities for South Africa

South Africa’s energy and climate policies are under scrutiny as the country prepares to host the COP28 summit later this year. The summit is expected to be a critical moment for the global community to raise its ambition and action on climate change, especially in light of the recent UN report that warned that fossil fuel output by 2030 will be more than double the levels consistent with the Paris goals.

South Africa, as the only African country with a net-zero emissions target, has a unique opportunity to showcase its leadership and innovation in the green energy transition. The country also stands to benefit from the global shift to low-carbon development, as it has abundant renewable energy resources, a strong industrial base, and a vibrant civil society.

However, South Africa also faces many challenges and trade-offs, as it has to balance its economic and social needs with its environmental and ethical obligations. The country has to deal with the legacy of apartheid, poverty, inequality, unemployment, corruption, and public health issues while also pursuing a sustainable and inclusive growth path.

South Africa’s energy and climate future will depend on how well it can navigate these complex and interrelated issues and how effectively it can mobilize its domestic and international resources and partnerships.