Home » Odisha Corona Update: Know What Are The Reasons That Compelled CM Naveen Pattnaik To Go On Air Today

Odisha Corona Update: Know What Are The Reasons That Compelled CM Naveen Pattnaik To Go On Air Today

by Swati Sahoo

In a clear message to the people of the state, CM Naveen Patnaik today cautioned that if there is any violation of Covid proper behaviour after the unlock, his administration will not hesitate to re-impose total lockdown.

What has driven the CM to go on the radio at a time when the number of daily confirmed cases in the state is decreasing is a moot question. The projections provided by SUTRA model creator Prof Manindra Agarwal and the Cambridge Centre for Health Leadership (CCHL) on the expected spike in cases in India beginning August 15 appear to be the most urgent factor.

According to the CCHL forecast, daily cases in India are expected to rise to 46,500 by the 15th of August.

It went on to say, “Rt, the effective reproduction number, has climbed to 1.04. The trend value of the growth rate of new instances has shifted to the positive side (0.9 percent ). Reported cases are anticipated to rise to various degrees in 13 states throughout the country. Cases appear to be rising in Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand at the moment.”

In a similar vein, Agarwal, the creator of the SUTRA model, stated, “With the pandemic spreading throughout virtually the entire population and the seropositivity rate currently hovering around 52%, there is still a long way to go until herd immunity is achieved. As a result, there are now two choices: maintain the contact rate low through lockdowns or allow it to rise higher by opening up.”

What Should Be the Rt rate?

Prof. Agarwal believes that the contact rate should be reduced to 0.33-0.35. This amount will then prevent the third wave from mutating into something terrible.

It is precisely this impending concern that has prompted CM Patnaik to go on the radio, because the Rt rate in Odisha is at 0.9. There isn’t a single district in the state with a Rt value around 0.5. More over half of the districts have a Rt value between 0.9 and 1.5.

Odisha Forecast

When IIT Kanpur projected that the model predicts that daily cases in Odisha are presently in the decrease phase. According to the most recent statistics, the effective reproduction number is 0.9. Odisha is projected to have approximately 160 daily cases in two weeks (meaning by Aug 15) based on the present decay rate, according to the CCHL model projection, the daily cases in Odisha would be about 1000 by Aug 15.

According to the CCHL model, the State’s daily case growth rate, which had fallen to about (-) 0.04 percent around July 13, increased to roughly (-) 0.02 percent after July 15, when the State removed the weekend shutdown in all category A districts.



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