According to the MeT department, the southwest monsoon will be normal in north and south India, above-average in central India, and below-average in east and northeast India.
In his second long-term forecast for the southwest monsoon 2021, Mrutunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), said the usual monsoon is expected in June, which is also the sowing season.
He predicted that the monsoon in the country as a whole would be normal this year.
In an online briefing, Mohapatra stated, “We are expecting a favorable monsoon, which would boost the agriculture industry.”
“Quantitatively, monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is anticipated to be 101 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus 4%,” he said.
Rainfall in the LPA range of 96-104 is classified as typical. For the period 1961-2010, the LPA of season rainfall in the country as a whole was 88 cm.
In its initial long-term forecast for the southwest monsoon 2021, the IMD estimated rainfall to be 98 percent of the LPA, which falls into the usual category. However, it has not increased its forecast to 101 percent of the LPA, which is over the typical range.
According to Mohapatra, there is a 40% possibility of regular rainfall, 22% above normal, 12% excess, and 18% below average rainfall.
“The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall (June to September) in the four homogenous rainfall areas is expected to be normal in northwest India (92-108%) and the south peninsula (93-107 per cent). Northeast India’s seasonal rainfall is expected to be below average (106%) this year “according to the IMD.
According to him, normal or above-average seasonal rainfall is most likely in several portions of northwest and central India, as well as the eastern parts of the southern peninsula.
According to Mohapatra, the current neutral ENSO conditions are anticipated to persist over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the probability of negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions developing over the Indian Ocean during the monsoon season.
The Indian monsoon is said to be influenced by El Nino, La Nina, positive and negative IOD. The warming and cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean are known as El Nino and La Nina, respectively. The warming and cooling of the Indian Ocean waters are also linked to negative and positive IOD, respectively.
Written By: Swati Sahoo